"Fresh black" ="White winter camouflage" is clear and makes sense only to you. It's nothing more than a guess.
Perhaps. But the opposite is a guess too.
It is clear that the tailplane was camouflaged in white during the 1941/42 winter
of course
It is also clear that tailplane wasn't repainted in black in spring 1942
This is wrong. There are wide parts of the tail where you can see the reflex of the pilot and of the vertical stabilizer, and other ones where you can't. Perhaps part of the repainting was green, but the most of the part was repainted.
It's also a well known fact that white winter paint was washable with warm water. Whoever washed that tailplane did a good job - factory number is still visible on the elevator.
No, it is well known that the white paint was difficult to remove and ruined the underlying paint. For example, here is the photo of Mironov's plane
We distinguish remains of white paint on the nose and the weathered rectangle about the number, while a wide part of the rear fuselage was repainted.
About the number -it looks visible, and suggests only that the relative part of the elevator preserved the original color. The large photo shows even the reflected image of the legs of the cat on a part of the elevator.
Two white bands on wings make plane more visible - that is how trainers were marked in Soviet flight schools. In other words, plane with two white bands is not camouflaged..
Two straight white bands are an identification mark on any ground without snow. Any number of white irregular bands are camouflaging on a snowy background. The enemy can't count the white bands if he has not already seen the plane.
The problem is not if this plane had one more or less white band. Where not visible on photos, they are merely guessed anyway.
Pattern is Massimo's speculation. Another model builder (Misos) have tried to make an "educated guess" based on cmouflage practices - better than pure speculation
Misos made an effort to learn about/understand winter camouflage; you limited your interpretation on available photos.
Here you are splitting venom between two members that haven't reasons of disagree (if not on a pair of white blotches). Should Misos have any problem with me, he can resolve easily simply speaking.
But you can't create them by putting us one against the other.
The problem is your unfair way to do. We welcome good researchers and appreciate discussion on the painting, but haven't any need to create friction between members.
Regards
Massimo